96 SA Flyer

All pilots have the

procedure for when

the powerplant

suddenly goes silent

drilled into their

heads during ab

initio training.

HE single-engine

pilot has it fairly easy:

Cessna has their well-

known ABC checklist

which starts with

setting the Airspeed

for best glide while we

gure out what to do next.

Then there is the WOSSS checklist,

which we use to gure out the Best place

to land by doping out the Wind, Obstacles,

Surface, Slope and Surrounds when our

dream of ight turns into a fearful ght to

stay alive. Finally there is the Checklist for

what might have caused the engine to lose

power.

For the multi-engine guy, he is usually

distracted by all that ‘dead foot, dead

engine’ stuff before he starts thinking about

the ‘dead pilot’ part as the working engine

takes him to the scene of the accident.

TAKE A PAUSE

One challenge we face as pilots is that

we cannot pause the game when things

go wrong. Unfortunately, in an emergency,

we have to become autopilots and rely on

our pre-programming to get us through

the immediate problem. We develop this

programming by simulating those problems

long before they actually happen, by sitting

quietly and thinking about it, getting our

minds to focus on the best responses,

by revising our actions over and over in

our minds, so that when the unthinkable

happens, we don’t need to think – we just

do it.

TAKE A STEP BACK

But there is a bigger picture which the

pilot is also able to absorb and analyse.

Nobody likes pessimists and doomsayers,

but there are some real prospects of ill

‘Winds’ in the entire eld of aviation and

even bigger economic and socio-political

infrastructure.

We are surrounded by numerous

‘Obstacles’ to maintaining ight, like

regulatory overload, nancial collapse (tried

nancing an aircraft lately?) and prohibitive

operating costs.

We are surrounded by rocky ‘Surfaces’,

crime, poverty and the lack of business and

employment opportunities.

The world economy is on a downhill

‘Slope’, a less than ideal place to land up

safely.

Our ‘Surroundings’ are also increasingly

hostile with few safe places to run to.

Oh look, we’ve just listed the items on

that familiar WOSSS checklist again.

SCIENCE FICTION

In the golden age of science ction

there were some writers who showed some

amazing prescience. Decades ago, author

Arthur C Clarke was best known for the

1968 movie ‘2001: A Space Odyssey’.

Even earlier than that, Clarke

envisaged things we take for granted today:

smartphones, geostationary satellites,

tough monomolecular bres and a host of

other technologies.

But Clarke was an optimist. He thought

the space mission to Jupiter would already

be under way in 2001 and that there would

be a large populated base on the Moon.

In reality, the biggest aerospace event in

2001 was the demolition of the New York

World Trade Centre by airliners hijacked by

terrorists.

Perhaps the rather more cynical 1909

short story by EM Forster, ‘The Machine

Stops’, was a more accurate predictor of the

world we currently live in.

Forster quite astonishingly foresaw the

Internet and instant messaging 107 years

ago. But the denizens of Forster’s future

world lived in windowless chambers which

they seldom left. Direct human interaction

was rare. However, communication with

other humans was frequent, but was

facilitated through technological marvels

that Forster generally refers to as ‘The

Machine’.

Although his world physically isolated

people from one another, things were pretty

comfortable:

“For a moment Vashti felt lonely.

Then she generated the light, and the

sight of her room, ooded with radiance

and studded with electric buttons, revived

her. There were buttons and switches

everywhere – buttons to call for food, for

music, for clothing. There was the hot-bath

CHRIS MARTINUS, PRESIDENT AIRCRAFT OWNERS AND PILOTS ASSOCIATION – SOUTH AFRICA

The machine sts

Has the machine failed and

is aviation crashing?

button, by pressure of which a basin of

(imitation) marble rose out of the oor,

lled to the brim with a warm deodorized

liquid. There was the cold-bath button.

There was the button that produced

literature, and there were of course the

buttons by which she communicated

with her friends. The room, though it

contained nothing, was in touch with all

that she cared for in the world.

The clumsy system of public

gatherings had been long since

abandoned; neither Vashti nor her

audience stirred from their rooms.

Seated in her armchair she spoke, while

they in their armchairs heard her, fairly well,

and saw her, fairly well. She opened with a

humorous account of music in the pre-

Mongolian epoch, and went on to describe

the great outburst of song that followed the

Chinese conquest.”

Travel in Forster’s world was rare, and

quite logically so:

“And of course she had studied the

civilization that had immediately preceded

her own – the civilization that had mistaken

the functions of the system, and had used

it for bringing people to things, instead of

for bringing things to people. Those funny

old days, when men went for change of air

instead of changing the air in their rooms!”

There was still the ancient airship

transport system, which was scary and

uncomfortable. Nobody ventured outdoors

much, for outside was just “mud and dust”.

Chillingly, most of us already live in

Forster’s world. The story proceeds with

The Machine gradually falling into disrepair.

Nobody remembers how to x it, even

though it is effectively a physical and

psychological deity upon which everyone

depends.

Eventually The Machine stops, bringing

down ‘civilization’ with it.

OUR WORLD

In a world of bankrupt airlines,

paralysed regulators, bad investment rating,

failing banks and much of the industry and

government rent-seeking as they face a

dwindling income stream, for most of us

The Machine is at best spluttering, if not

already completely stopped.

Our Civil Aviation Authority clearly

does not know what to do next, nor does its

surrogates. CARCom regulatory meetings

mostly revolve around trying to increase

‘passenger safety charges’ – the fees

charged to airline passengers and collected

by the airlines on CAA’s behalf – and futile

increases in the fuel levy on avgas.

The regulatory process has devolved

into squabbles about the minutes and

who said what when. The regulator is

also desperately trying to undermine

the consultative process by limiting and

excluding public input into the development

of safety regulations.

The Department of Transport has

redrafted the Civil Aviation Act in order

to suit themselves at the expense of the

industry itself, and hopes to push this

through Parliament sometime soon.

The CAA continues to try to close down

and limit smaller airports.

And all this against the background of

general aviation being well past its peak.

GA aircraft have never come close to

returning to the sales gures of the late

1960s and 1970s.

Home-building of aircraft has seen

a dramatic decline and has been almost

completely replaced by fast-build kits and

so-called ‘production-built’ aircraft where

such kits are assembled in a factory.

But even kit aircraft are following much

the same trend as kit cars did in past

decades. In years gone by, it seemed like

everyone was building a beach buggy or a

Cobra replica. After that, there were a few

factories who would do the building for us.

Those too are gone today.

Richard VanGrunsven, producer of the

famed Vans Aircraft kits had this to say in

2012:

“I don’t expect to see dramatic

changes in the industry within the next

ve years. Ten years, who knows – it’s too

dependent on fuel prices, FAA policy, etc.

With concern over fuel prices, we might

see a trend toward lower-powered aircraft

intended more for pure sport ying rather

than the trend toward cross-country aircraft,

which has been the norm over the past 30

years. I would expect that toward the end

of that period, there might be some design

ventures into electric-powered aircraft,

but only if battery technology improves

signicantly.

“There seems to be a shrinking pilot

base from which to draw people to build

kits. Plus, with demographic changes,

there is possibly a diminishing interest in,

or ability to undertake, aircraft building

as a pastime. Hopefully, EAA and AOPA

initiatives to interest more people in learning

to y will help create a larger market for our

airplanes.”

MAYDAY MAYDAY

The Machine is clearly losing power

and it is time to maintain best glide speed.

Watch out for the wind, the obstacles, the

surface, the slope and the surroundings.

A safe landing is imperative if we are to

y another day. All focus must be to save

what we have without losing everything

during this hopefully short temporary

period.

As VanGrunsven says, “It is up to us to

keep up with initiatives to have more people

learn to y – and to protect and keep safe

those who already y.”

The Machine has not stopped – yet. Go

outdoors and enjoy the sky, and encourage

others to do the same.

CHRIS MARTINUS, PRESIDENT AIRCRAFT OWNERS AND PILOTS ASSOCIATION – SOUTH AFRICA

AOPA BRIEFING

RV's VanGrunsven says, “It is up to us to keep up with initiatives to have more

people learn to fly – and to protect and keep safe those who already fly.”